The global luxury market is no longer growing by default: Bain & Company’s latest worldwide study, produced with the Italian industry body Altagamma, finds sales flat and the number of luxury buyers sharply lower. This article sets out what the figures show, why the shoppers who left matter, and where spending is moving instead.
What did the latest Bain study actually find?
According to Bain’s November 2025 market study, personal luxury goods sales were forecast at €358 billion for 2025, against €364 billion in 2024. That is a fall of roughly 2% at current exchange rates, and flat once currency movements are stripped out. The wider luxury economy, which includes hospitality, cars, yachts, art and fine dining as well as goods, was put at about €1.44 trillion, also broadly flat.
The simple arithmetic is worth stating: €364 billion minus €358 billion is €6 billion, or about 1.6% of the 2024 figure, which rounds to the “mild 2% erosion” Bain describes. Bain’s own framing is that this is a sector at a crossroads rather than in crisis, with robust underlying growth still expected over the next decade.
Why is the number of luxury customers falling?
The more striking finding is not about sales but about people. Bain estimates the global luxury consumer base fell from around 400 million in 2022 to roughly 340 million in 2025, with the fuller report giving a slightly lower active-client estimate of about 330 million. Bain says the fuller report’s active client base is effectively back to its estimated 2013 size.
A worked example shows the scale. A fall from 400 million to 340 million is 60 million fewer buyers, or 15%. Using the lower 330 million estimate, the fall is 70 million, or 17.5%. Either way, around one in six customers has gone in three years.
Bain also reports that only 40% to 45% of the addressable consumer base bought personal luxury goods in 2025, compared with about 60% in 2022, and that new customer acquisition fell by about 5% between 2024 and 2025.
Who left, and what pushed them out?
Bain’s analysis points chiefly at aspirational shoppers: the mid-tier buyers who treated a handbag, a pair of shoes or an entry-level watch as a milestone purchase. In its commentary, Bain says the post-Covid era of price elevation appears to be ending as demand from this group falters.
The fuller report quantifies the pricing pressure, stating that like-for-like prices on iconic handbags rose by between 50% and 70% from 2019 to 2025. Readers should treat that as Bain’s estimate for a specific product group rather than a measure of luxury prices generally. The logic, however, is straightforward: when entry prices climb faster than incomes, the occasional buyer drops out first, while the wealthiest clients carry on.
This sits comfortably alongside the argument in Quiet Luxury Is Over — What’s Replacing It, which looked at how taste and signalling are shifting at the top of the market.
Where is the money going instead?
Bain describes a move from “conspicuous consumption” towards “experiential indulgence”. Claudia D’Arpizio, a senior partner at Bain, is quoted in the study release saying: “After the shopping spree era, experiences and emotions have become the true engine of luxury growth.”
The fuller report gives some segment figures:
| Segment (2025) | Bain’s reported movement |
|---|---|
| Luxury hospitality | Up 3%, to €251 billion |
| Cruises | Up 10%, to €6 billion |
| Private jets and yachts | Up 9%, to €34 billion |
| Experiences overall | Up about 3% |
| Luxury products overall | Down about 1% |
Bain also notes that gourmet dining is booming in Asia, the Middle East and resort destinations, while fine art has stalled and fine wines and spirits have disappointed, with premium bubbles and Italian reds the exceptions. For a closer look at the travel end of this shift, see The New Economics of Luxury Travel.
Which categories and regions are holding up?
Strength is uneven. Jewellery is the fastest-growing category in Bain’s data, at 4% to 6% growth, with eyewear at 2% to 4% and fragrance described as the most dynamic part of beauty. Luxury shoes and leather goods are among the weaker areas.
Regionally, at constant exchange rates, Bain’s release reports:
- Middle East: growth of 4% to 6%.
- Americas: growth of 0% to 2%, which Bain links to renewed confidence among high-end consumers.
- Europe: a decline of 1% to 3%.
- Mainland China: a decline, which the press release puts at 3% to 5% at constant rates and the fuller report estimates at 6% to 8% at current rates. The two measures differ, but the direction is the same.
- Japan: slowing after a strong 2024, when demand from Chinese tourists lifted sales.
For London, the European and tourist-driven figures are a useful reminder that a luxury district’s fortunes depend on who is visiting as much as who lives nearby.
Is profitability under pressure too?
Yes. Bain says operating margins for the brands in its sample were heading for roughly 15% to 16% in 2025, a level last seen around 2009, as higher operating costs and weaker full-price sales weighed on results. The fuller report adds that the sector’s profit pool has fallen by about a fifth over the past 24 months.
That helps explain why brands are rethinking their approach. Federica Levato, another Bain senior partner, is quoted saying that to future-proof the model, “brands must evolve from reach to precision, from blending with trends to shaping them.” In plain terms, fewer but better-targeted customer relationships, rather than ever-wider appeal.
What does the longer-term outlook look like?
Bain does not expect a lasting slump. It describes 4% to 6% annual growth for personal luxury goods as realistic over the coming decade, which would take the segment to roughly €525 billion to €625 billion by 2035 according to the press release (the fuller report gives a top end of €640 billion). The total luxury economy is projected at €2.2 trillion to €2.7 trillion by then, from about €1.44 trillion today.
A simple check on the total: growing from €1.44 trillion at 4% a year for ten years gives about €2.13 trillion, and at 6% about €2.58 trillion, so the published range is broadly consistent with these growth rates once the starting point and rounding are considered. It is a forecast, and forecasts in a sector this exposed to consumer confidence and currency moves can change quickly.
For 2026 itself, the fuller report forecasts personal luxury goods growth of 3% to 5%. Those are projections, not outcomes.
What a thinner customer base means for the luxury market
Three things stand out from the data, and they are analysis rather than reported fact. First, the industry’s pricing strategy of the early 2020s appears to have run into a ceiling among the buyers it depends on for volume. Second, the customers who remain are, on average, more affluent and more selective, which favours brands with genuine craftsmanship, heritage and scarcity over those relying on logos and frequency of purchase. Third, spending that leaves goods does not leave luxury: it often reappears as hotels, dining and travel, and as pre-owned and repaired items, a shift also visible in Why the Watch Market Is Behaving Differently Than It Used To.
For readers, the useful lens is not whether luxury is “up” or “down” but which part of the market a given product or business serves. A sector that has lost around 15% of its customers while holding total sales broadly steady is, by definition, relying more heavily on its remaining clients.
Luxury after the shopping spree: a more selective market
Bain’s study portrays an industry that has matured. Sales are flat, the buyer base has contracted to roughly its size a decade ago, margins have reset, and growth is shifting towards experiences and a narrower, wealthier clientele. None of that signals the end of luxury, but it does suggest that the easy gains from price rises are behind it, and that the next phase will reward precision, quality and genuine value over volume.
This article is general information, not personalised financial advice; figures, forecasts and rules change.
Sources: Bain & Company
